Fantasy Football 2024: Charting Last-Minute ADP Movement (2024)

As the start of the 2024 NFL season draws closer and closer, fans all over the country are starting to draft their fantasy teams. Some do their draft whenever they can, meaning that the convenience of the date and time are more important than how close to the season the draft occurs.

With that, it's interesting to research and find out who was being drafted at a certain ADP perhaps after Week 1 of the preseason to that same player's ADP two weeks later.

Below is a list of three players who have seen their ADP rise followed by players who have seen their ADP fall.

RISER: Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

With no suspension announced, Rice is flying back up boards

The Kansas City Chiefs were absolutely desperate for a No. 1 receiver last season that they took Rashee Rice out of SMU with the No. 55 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, just a year after taking Skyy Moore just one pick sooner the year prior. There were some growing pains early. While he had four double-digit fantasy outings in the first six weeks, he never finished better than the WR23 and was outside the top 40 three times.

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes must've spent the entire bye week working exclusively with the rookie pass-catcher because Rice was WR15 or better in Week 12-Week 17 in PPR formats. The only reason Rice was ranked that low in the first place is because of the possible suspension looming over his head. If the legal side of things goes well into the season, it's possible the suspension would come after the season, as NFL Network's Ian Rapoport suggested back in April.

"As you guys laid out, the offense without Rashee Rice there, what we don't know is whether or not he'll be eligible to start the season with the Kansas City Chiefs. And really this depends on how quickly the legal process plays out. If his case is – and he’s been charged with, I believe six charges – if his case wraps up, then there is potential the NFL could issue its discipline and he would likely be suspended. If the case is still ongoing, as we’ve seen with several others, then likely he’d be eligible to play this season. Discipline would be handled the following season. So the timing is really an issue, not whether or not he’ll actually be suspended." - NFL Network's Ian Rapoport

As of Aug. 13, however, Rice still had not met with the NFL. According to ESPN.com's Live Draft Trends, which tracks players' ADP in live drafts over the past seven days, Rice has seen his ADP go from 90.6 to its current 82.7. If Rice can build on the strong ending to the 2023-24 season and avoid the suspension, that cost could prove to be a bargain.

RISER: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

The rookie has a ton of potential in this offense

After free agency, it was almost a consensus that people thought Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Christian Kirk was due for a breakout season. Who could blame them? After all, the Jags have 110 receptions on 200 targets to replace, along with 1,337 receiving yards after the departures of Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones . While Kirk's familiarity and chemistry with Lawrence will help early on, Brian Thomas Jr. has the looks of a true No. 1 receiver and is documented accordingly in our fantasy football draft kit.

Admittedly, the Jags still have plenty of options to throw the ball to, as tight end Evan Engram tallied 114 receptions on 143 targets and they also like to feature their running backs in the passing game. The Fantasy Football public seems to be willing to take the plunge on the Baton Rogue product is up 8.4 spots compared to before the preseason drew to a close.

RISER: Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers

Jonathon Brooks is sidelined

Carolina Panthers running back Chubba Hubbard was probably the best of a bad situation last season. Although the team had brought in former Philadelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders on a four-year/$25.4 million deal, it was the Oklahoma State product that led the team with 902 yards.

It's hard to predict what will happen after those four weeks and exactly where Brooks is at and just how quickly the Panthers want to get him into action. While Hubbard had the starting job last season, he never played fewer than 49 percent of the snaps and was over the 70 percent mark four times.

Following the announcement that teammate Jonathan Brooks would be put onto the PUP list to start the season, Hubbard has seen his stock rise almost an entire round, as he's now being picked 11.1 spots earlier than he was at this time last week, with many hoping Brooks could've avoided the PUP. September is now officially Hubbard season, so draft him accordingly.

FALLER: Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers

While the Panthers selected Jonathon Brooks No. 46 overall out of Texas back in April, he is still rehabbing a torn ACL and was put on the PUP list to start the season, meaning he will miss the team's first four games. That's just the beginning of a tricky situation. Now managers have to decide just how worth it is to take someone that will miss at least the first month?

There's no guarantee after those four games, he'll be ready to take the field. Fantasy managers have already decided to back off the Longhorns product, as his ADP has dropped 10.9 spots. It'll also depend on how good the team looks at that point, specifically the offensive line. It seems like Panthers fans are already noticing a difference.

What was one of the worst units in the league last season, the Panthers addressed it in free agency by signing Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt at the guard positions. The impact from the pair of free-agent signings will likely prove crucial to just how quick the team tries to bring Brooks along. If it resembles last season's unit more than the promise and vision of signing the pair of interior linemen, Brooks' managers could be playing the waiting game on his return.

FALLER: Curtis Samuel, WR, Buffalo Bills

Some like Keon Coleman or Khalil Shakir a little more

Utility man Curtis Samuel was brought to the Buffalo Bills on a three-year/$24 million deal after the team chose to not bring back Gabe Davis and traded Stefon Diggs, the No. 189 in the 2024 NFL Draft and a 2025 fifth-round pick to the Houston Texans for a 2025 second-round pick. Bills fans were excited to see what Samuel could bring to a Joe Brady offense that saw Samuel rack up career-high numbers across the board when the two were together in Carolina in 2020.

Samuel had been sidelined with turf toe and just returned to practice Wednesday. While Brady almost definitely has a vision for Samuel once he's healthy, it'll take him some time to get back up to speed and get him on the same page as Josh Allen on certain routes. Fantasy managers have seemed to think similarly, as he's dropped about 4.1 spots in the past week. He's still absolutely worthy of being drafted, but temper expectations early.

FALLER: Hollywood Brown, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

An injury might keep him sidelined

Hollywood Brown seemed to have been in a dream position. When the Chiefs signed the former Arizona Cardinal speedster to a one-year, $11 million deal, Chiefs fans and NFL fans alike had instant glimpses and flashbacks to the days when quarterback Mahomes threw absolute rockets to Tyreek Hill down the field.

As the offseason went on and Rice got into his "situation," Brown looked like he could be the team's No. 1 receiver. However, a sternoclavicular injury suffered against the Jaguars in the team's preseason opener has kept him sidelined for the past two weeks, and he remains out of practice.

Brown might not be in the long-term plans for the Chiefs, as Kansas City's first-round draft pick Xavier Worthy harnesses a similar skillset and will likely be called upon in the role that Brown would've been in. Brown will still be drafted ahead of Worthy, but Reid is known for knowing how to get his speedsters the ball. Brown has seen his ADP drop four spots in the last week.

That has to do with Brown's injury and how good Worthy looked with Mahomes. If Brown can deliver on what he brings and offers the Chiefs offense, he could still be looking at a 1,000-yard season and an element that fans haven't seen in a while from arguably the league's best deep-ball thrower.

All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference and fantasy stats from Fantasy Pros, unless stated otherwise.